The rate shock 利率冲击 | 经济学人中英双语精读笔记

译 / 柳下婴（微信公众号：王不留）

选自TE20221001，Leaders

The rate shock

利率冲击

Markets are reeling from higher rates.The world economy is next

股市已遭受加息的沉重打击，下一个该轮到全球经济了

If the Fed tightens until something breaks, the first cracking sounds could be in Europe

假如美联储的紧缩政策要压垮什么，那么首当其冲的或许是欧洲

[1] The world’s financial markets are going through their most painful adjustment since the global financial crisis. Adapting to the prospect of higher American interest rates, the ten-year Treasury yield briefly hit 4% this week, its highest level since 2010. Global stockmarkets have sold off sharply, and bond portfolios have lost an astonishing 21% this year.

世界金融市场正在经历自2007-09年全球金融危机以来最为艰难的调整。为适应美国利率上升的前景，10年期美国国债收益率本周一度达到4%，为2010年以来的最高水平。全球股市大幅抛售，债券投资组合今年损失了令人吃惊的21%。

[2] The dollar is crushing all comers. The greenback is up by 5.5% since mid-August on a trade-weighted basis, partly because the Fed is raising rates but also because investors are backing away from risk. Across Asia, governments are intervening to resist the depreciation of their currencies. In Europe Britain has poured the fuel of reckless fiscal policy on the fire, causing it to lose the confidence of investors. And as bond yields surge, the euro zone’s indebted economies are looking their most fragile since the sovereign-debt crisis a decade ago.

美元正在压垮所有进入市场的人。自8月中旬以来，美元贸易加权汇率上涨了5.5%，部分原因是美联储加息，但也因为投资者正在远离风险。在整个亚洲，各国政府都在进行干预，以抵制本币贬值。在欧洲，英国将鲁莽的财政政策火上浇油，使其失去了投资者的信心。而随着债券收益率的飙升，欧元区债务经济体看起来正处于自10年前主权债务危机以来最脆弱的时期。

[3] The primary cause of the market chaos is the Federal Reserve's fight with inflation. Because the Fed has lost the first three or four rounds since prices began to surge in 2021, it is now swinging harder. The central bank expects to raise the federal funds rate to nearly 4.5% by the end of the year and higher still in 2023. The outlook for rates is rippling through America’s financial system. The cost of 30-year mortgages is nearly 7%. Junk-bond yields are already over 9%, which has caused the issuance of new debt to dry up. Bankers who underwrote leveraged buy-outs when yields were lower are suddenly finding themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in the red. Pension funds which gorged on opaque private assets in pursuit of higher returns when rates were lower must now tot up their losses as risky investments slump in value.

市场混乱的主要原因是美联储的抑制通胀措施。由于自2021年价格开始飙升以来，美联储已经输掉了前三、四轮，现在它摇摆得更厉害了。美联储预计将在今年年底前将联邦基金利率提高到近4.5%，并在2023年更高。利率的前景正在波及美国金融体系。30年期抵押贷款的成本接近7%。垃圾债券的收益率已经超过了9%，这导致了新债的发行枯竭。在收益率较低时承销杠杆收购的银行家们突然发现自己有数亿美元的赤字。当利率较低时，养老基金为了追求更高的回报而大量购买不透明的私人资产，现在必须随着风险投资价值的下滑而增加损失。

[4] Yet it is outside America where the financial effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening have been most severe. The surging dollar is painful for energy importers that were already grappling with higher costs. India, Thailand and Singapore have intervened in financial markets to support their currencies. Emerging-market currency reserves have fallen by over $200bn in the past year, according to JPMorgan Chase, a bank—the fastest fall in two decades.

然而，美联储收紧货币政策的金融影响最严重的是美国以外的国家。对于已经在努力应对成本上涨的能源进口商来说，美元飙升是痛苦的。印度、泰国和新加坡纷纷干预金融市场以支撑本国货币。据摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Chase）的数据，新兴市场国家的外汇储备在过去一年中减少了2000亿美元——这是20年来下降最快的一次。

[5] Advanced economies can usually withstand dollar strength. Today, if anything, they are showing greater signs of immediate stress. Some of the worst-performing currencies in 2022 are from the rich world. Sweden raised rates by a full percentage point on September 20th and still saw its currency fall against the dollar. In Britain surging yields on government debt have failed to attract much foreign capital. The Bank of Korea is lending currency reserves to the national pension fund so that it buys fewer dollars in the open market. In Japan the government has intervened to buy yen for the first time this century, despite the apparently ironclad determination of the central bank to keep interest rates low.

发达经济体通常能够承受美元走强。今天，如果有的话，他们正在显示出承受紧迫压力的突出迹象。2022年一些表现最差的货币来自发达国家。瑞典在9月20日将利率提高了整整一个百分点，但其货币兑美元汇率仍然下跌。在英国，政府债务收益率飙升，未能吸引大量外国资本。韩国央行（Bank of Korea）将外汇储备借给韩国国家养老基金，以减少其在公开市场上购买美元的数量。在日本，政府本世纪第一次干预购买日元，尽管日本央行显然下定了维持低利率的坚定决心。

[6] Part of the explanation for the pressure on advanced-economy currencies is that many central banks have hitherto failed to keep pace with the Fed's tightening—but with good reason, because their economies are weaker. The energy crisis is about to plunge Europe into recession.

发达经济体货币面临压力的部分原因是，许多央行迄今未能跟上美联储紧缩的步伐——但这是有充分理由的，因为它们的经济较弱。能源危机即将使欧洲陷入衰退。

[7] A strong dollar, in effect, exports America's domestic inflation problem to weaker economies. They can support their currencies by raising rates in line with the Fed, but only at the cost of even lower growth. Britain has the worst of both worlds. Markets now expect the Bank of England to set the highest rates of any big rich economy next year but sterling has slumped all the same. If the bank follows through with rate rises, the housing market could collapse.

实际上，强势美元将美国国内的通胀问题转嫁到较弱的经济体。他们可以通过与美联储一致的加息来支撑本国货币，但这只能以更低的增长为代价。英国是两个世界中最差的。市场目前预计，英国央行明年将在所有大型富裕经济体中设定最高的利率，但英镑汇率仍然大幅下跌。如果央行坚持加息，房地产市场可能会崩溃。

[8] Even America’s economy, which has been resilient in the face of headwinds this year, is unlikely to keep growing through an interest-rate shock as severe as the one it now faces. House prices are falling, banks are laying off staff and FedEx and Ford, two economic bellwethers, have issued profit warnings. It is only a matter of time before the unemployment rate starts rising. A slowing economy is ultimately necessary to restore price stability—it would be madness for the Fed to tolerate annual inflation of 8.3%, much of which is home-grown. But higher rates will damage the real economy and cause suffering. The world’s financial markets are just waking up to that, too. 

即使是在今年的逆风面前表现出弹性的美国经济，也不太可能在像现在这样严重的利率冲击下保持增长。房价在下跌，银行在裁员，联邦快递和福特这两大经济领头羊也发布了盈利预警。失业率开始上升只是时间问题。经济放缓最终是恢复价格稳定的必要条件——美联储容忍8.3%的年通胀率是疯狂的，而其中很大一部分是国内生产的。但更高的利率将损害实体经济并导致痛苦。世界金融市场也刚刚意识到这一点。