Actually, there is not much misjudgment in the real estate industry. Basically, everyone understands that now is a historical peak, and there will be a downward trend lasting for decades. In the financial industry group discussions, there is also a consensus that either housing prices will plummet or the exchange rate will plummet.
其实房地产业已经没什么误判了。基本上都理解现在是历史大顶，后面是长达几十年的下行。金融业群里讨论，也有一句共识: 要么房价骨折，要么汇率骨折。
If the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan were to change from 1:6.3 to 1:20, it would have a significant impact on both economies.
For China, a weaker yuan would make its exports more competitive on the global market. This would boost exports and help to support economic growth. However, a weaker yuan would also make imports more expensive, which could lead to inflation.
For the US, a stronger dollar would make its imports cheaper, which could help to keep inflation in check. However, a stronger dollar would also make US exports less competitive, which could hurt economic growth.
Overall, the impact of a change in the exchange rate would depend on a number of factors, including the state of the global economy and the relative strengths of the US and Chinese economies. However, it is clear that such a change would have a significant impact on both economies.
Here are some of the specific effects of a change in the exchange rate:
- Trade: A weaker yuan would make Chinese exports more competitive, while a stronger dollar would make US exports less competitive. This could lead to changes in the pattern of trade between the two countries.
- Investment: A weaker yuan would make China a more attractive destination for foreign investment, while a stronger dollar would make the US a more attractive destination for foreign investment. This could lead to changes in the flow of capital between the two countries.
- Tourism: A weaker yuan would make China a more affordable destination for tourists from the US, while a stronger dollar would make the US a more affordable destination for tourists from China. This could lead to changes in the number of tourists traveling between the two countries.
- Inflation: A weaker yuan could lead to inflation in China, as the cost of imported goods would increase. A stronger dollar could lead to inflation in the US, as the cost of imported goods would decrease.
- Interest rates: A weaker yuan could lead to lower interest rates in China, as the central bank would need to take steps to stimulate the economy. A stronger dollar could lead to higher interest rates in the US, as the central bank would need to take steps to prevent inflation.
Overall, the impact of a change in the exchange rate would be complex and would depend on a number of factors. However, it is clear that such a change would have a significant impact on both the US and Chinese economies.
A significant depreciation of a currency can have both positive and negative effects on an economy. Here are some potential effects of a depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) against the US dollar (USD), assuming a change from 1 CNY = 6.3 USD to 1 CNY = 20 USD:
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Exports become cheaper and more competitive: A weaker currency makes exports cheaper and more attractive, potentially leading to increased demand for Chinese goods in other countries. This could boost exports and help Chinese businesses that rely on foreign sales.
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Imports become more expensive: A weaker currency makes imports more expensive, potentially leading to higher prices for imported goods. This could hurt Chinese consumers and businesses that rely on imported goods.
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Inflation could rise: A weaker currency could lead to inflation, as the cost of imported goods increases. This could reduce the purchasing power of the yuan and lead to higher prices for Chinese consumers.
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Capital flight: A significant currency depreciation could lead to capital flight, as investors seek to move their money out of the country to avoid further currency devaluation. This could lead to a loss of confidence in the economy and reduce investment in China.
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Higher debt burden: If China has borrowed in foreign currency, a significant depreciation of the yuan could increase the debt burden in yuan terms, making it more difficult for the government and businesses to repay their debts.
It is important to note that currency exchange rates are determined by complex factors such as trade flows, interest rates, inflation, and government policies, and the actual effects of a currency depreciation can be difficult to predict.
外在驱动欲望是保房价，把汇率边际放宽。内在驱动力可能不会如意，房价与汇率双贬，资产负债表紧缩就会形成。
标签：骨折,lead,would,房价,could,US,汇率,yuan,more From： https://www.cnblogs.com/chucklu/p/17397339.html